A team of researchers, led by Dankmar Böhning and supported by Rattana Lerdsuwansri and Patarawan Sangnawakij from Thammasat University, has developed a powerful new method to measure the effectiveness of contact-tracing efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand. This breakthrough helps health authorities understand how well they are tracking the virus’s spread and where they might need to improve.
Using a special technique called “capture-recapture,” the team found that Thailand’s contact-tracing managed to reach about 83% of possible cases, with an accuracy range between 74% and 93%. This means that most cases were successfully tracked, but there were still some missed—an important insight for health officials working to strengthen contact-tracing efforts. Better tracing helps to quickly identify and contain outbreaks, which is especially crucial at the start of an epidemic when timely action can prevent wider spread.
The impact of this research goes far beyond Thailand. This method can be used in other countries, particularly in the early stages of an outbreak when quick, accurate contact-tracing is essential. By showing how to measure and improve tracing efforts, this method gives health teams a powerful tool to limit virus transmission and keep communities safer.
Since its success with COVID-19 in Thailand, the method has also been used to assess contact-tracing during an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, proving it can adapt to different types of infectious diseases. With its flexibility and effectiveness, this approach is setting a new standard for managing epidemics.
To build on these findings, Thailand has formed a working group with experts from across the country and from Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy. They meet regularly to improve and update the method. The World Health Organization has also taken an interest, aiming to add this approach to their toolkit for managing infectious disease outbreaks worldwide.
Through this research, Thailand is not only enhancing its own health response but also offering a valuable tool to the global community—a method that could improve contact-tracing everywhere, making epidemic control faster, more accurate, and ultimately saving lives.
