Project overview
This research project aimed to provide a greater understanding of how factors external to the passenger rail market have been affecting rail demand since the early 1990s, focusing particularly on the likely reasons for the general durability of rail demand since the economic downturn in 2008.
The first stage of the work involved carrying out a literature review alongside back casting of rail demand over the study period to test the predictive power of the existing Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) modelling recommendations. This work made use of a comprehensive dataset on rail passenger numbers and on the factors which determine rail demand (RUDD), supplied by the Department for Transport. The results from the first stage of the project fed into a second phase which used sophisticated panel data modelling techniques including fixed effect models and dynamic panel effects models to capture the effects of structural changes in the economy and other external variables on rail demand. This modelling fed into a number of recommendations for revisions to the rail passenger demand forecasting framework.
The research forms part of the University’s Rail Research Portfolio
