About the project
Coastal flooding is one of the most dangerous and costly natural hazards that humanity faces globally and yet it will become even more frequent and challenging to manage because of climate change and other factors. In densely populated estuarine settings, a storm surge barrier is often an attractive and economical solution for flood protection.
There are many surge barriers in operation today around the world protecting tens of million people and trillions of pounds of property and infrastructure. However, with accelerating rates of sea-level rise being observed and changes in storminess, surge barriers are starting to have to close more and more frequently, with critical implications for barrier management, maintenance, and operation. This has also negative ramifications for shipping and the health of the estuary behind barriers and the important ecosystems they support.
This project will focus on areas of Europe most vulnerable to coastal flooding: Venice, Netherlands and London.
The overall aims of this PhD are to:
- Improve forecast of flooding through Artificial Intelligence and develop early warning systems essential for storm barrier management and risk mitigation
- Assess the impact of sea level rise and changes in storminess on flooding in these areas, considering near and long-term implications for the storm surge barriers that protect them
Results will be used to guide future barrier management, maintenance, operation, and upgrade/replacement planning.
The study will have three main components.
First a broad scale assessment will be carried out determining how both mean and extreme sea-levels have changed in the past in Venice, London and Netherlands, using tide gauge records, satellite observations and model re-analysis.
Second, to use new AI approaches to improve forecast of storm surges in these areas, developing early warning systems. Knowledge obtained during the initial assessment will be essential to select training data for AI.
Finally, future changes in sea level and extremes will be assessed using a range of climate projections.
A statistical method will be developed (building on existing work being carried out at the University of Southampton) to estimate how many more times the barriers will have to close each year and when in the year, in the future.
Please contact the lead supervisor if you require further information about the project.
